The Market Dropped.
Now What?
See exactly what happened the last 40+ times any asset dropped this far — expected return, win rate, and prediction accuracy. Backed by 3.8M data points across 610 assets.
Free forever · No credit card · 5 analyses/month
Assets
Stocks, ETFs, Crypto & more
Years of Data
Some tracked since 1968
Data Points
Analyzed daily
Avg Win Rate
Across all levels
SOUND FAMILIAR?
You know you should buy the dip. You just don't know which dip.
These are the three questions investors ask us most.
Is this a real opportunity or am I catching a falling knife?
ARAD replaces the guessing with a simple answer: here is what happened the last 40+ times the price fell this far. Here is the expected return. Here is how often it worked out.
I bought the dip last time and it kept dropping.
ARAD shows you the win rate and median recovery time at every drawdown level. A −5% dip with a 30-day recovery is very different from a −30% crash that took 200 days. Sometimes the answer is wait for a deeper drop.
I don't trust tools that won't show me how they work.
Every number comes with its sample size, prediction accuracy, and exact error margin. There is no proprietary algorithm hidden behind a paywall.
THE METHOD
Four steps. Zero black boxes.
No AI guesswork. No sentiment scores. Just historical analysis you can audit yourself.
Measure the Drop
Measure the Drop
For every trading day, we measure how far the price has fallen from its highest point ever. That gap is called the drawdown.
Find Similar Drops
Find Similar Drops
We divide the full range of drops into 20 equal buckets. Your current drop lands in one of them — alongside every past drop at that same level.
Look at What Happened Next
Look at What Happened Next
For each past episode in your bucket, we calculate what the asset returned over the next 90 days. No future data is ever used — only what was known at the time.
Get Your Numbers
Get Your Numbers
You see the expected return, win rate, prediction accuracy, and a target price — all backed by real history you can verify.
It called the crash. The rally. The recovery.
Three real moments where ARAD issued a signal before the price moved. No hindsight. The analysis used only data available at the time.
S&P 500
The S & P 500 lost a third of its value in 33 days — the fastest crash in market history.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin fell 72% from its peak as rising interest rates crushed speculative assets.
NVIDIA
NVIDIA dropped 28% as investors took profits and the AI rally paused.
The same analysis runs on 610+ assets every day. Here's a sample.
BUILT FOR YOU
Whether you're cautious or calculated.
ARAD adapts to how you invest.
I want confidence before I buy
You've been watching a dip but aren't sure it's the bottom. ARAD shows you the win rate, expected return, and sample size — so you can stop guessing and start deciding.
- Full analysis in 30 seconds
- Win rate at every drawdown level
- Historical price paths from past episodes
I want to sharpen my timing
You know what to buy. ARAD tells you when — ranking 610+ assets by opportunity score so you always enter at the right level.
- Rank all 610+ assets at once
- Portfolio backtesting (3 strategies)
- CSV export for your models
I want to build systems
You want raw signals and API access. ARAD gives you programmable endpoints, custom parameters, and a backtesting engine to validate before you automate.
- REST API with 5 keys
- Custom segments, decay, and return period
- Sharpe and Sortino optimization
See exactly what you get.
Other tools show you a number. ARAD shows you the number, the sample size, the win rate, the error margin, and every historical path that generated it.
How often this drop level led to gains
Median return from decades of past episodes
How far off past estimates were, on average
Portfolio Backtest
3 strategies
Asset Ranking
610+ assets
Drop-Level Breakdown
20 buckets
Risk vs. Reward Map
Visual scatter
Recovery Timeline
Days to recover
CSV Export
Pro+ tier
Everything you need to invest
with confidence.
Analyze any asset. Rank opportunities. Backtest strategies. All in one place.
Understand any asset in 30 seconds
- 610+ assets across stocks, crypto, ETFs, commodities, forex, and more
- Six numbers that matter: current price, how far it has dropped, expected return, win rate, accuracy, and target price
- See every historical outcome at your drawdown level — not a simulation, the real price paths from decades of data
Spot the best opportunities first
- Every asset ranked by expected return, win rate, or accuracy in one sortable view
- Filter by category, search by ticker, and surface opportunities others miss
- Export to CSV for your own models and spreadsheets
Prove your strategy before risking a dollar
- Run three strategies — Top-N Rotation, Z-Score Timing, Long/Short — on decades of real data
- Compare returns, risk, and trade history side-by-side against benchmarks
- Save configs and revisit anytime — no capital at risk
Know your portfolio’s weak spots
- Your holdings scored by ARAD signals — see which positions are in favorable zones and which need attention
- Weighted portfolio score tells you your overall risk level at a glance
- Rebalancing suggestions based on current drawdown levels across all your positions
Track what matters to you
- Build watchlists of assets you care about — see live ARAD signals for every ticker at a glance
- Filter by signal strength, category, or drawdown level to surface the best setups
- Get notified when watched assets enter favorable drawdown zones
What you won't find anywhere else.
Most tools tell you what the market did. ARAD tells you what it did next — and how often.
| Feature | Charting Tools | Stock Screeners | Rating Services | ARAD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown-level probabilities | — | — | — | ✓ |
| Forward return forecast | — | — | — | ✓ |
| Calibrated prediction error | — | — | — | ✓ |
| Win rate per drawdown level | — | — | — | ✓ |
| Sample size for every signal | — | — | — | ✓ |
| Multi-asset coverage (7 categories) | ✓ | ✓ | Partial | ✓ |
| Portfolio backtesting | Partial | — | — | ✓ |
| Recovery timeline | — | — | — | ✓ |
Built for investors who check the math.
Every forecast includes its own error margin. We tell you when to trust the signal — and when not to.
Avg. Prediction Error
How far off past estimates were, on average
Open Methodology
Verify every signal yourself
Avg. Past Episodes
Exposed per drop level, not a small sample
Updated Daily
Fresh signals every morning at 5 AM UTC
SIMPLE PRICING
Start free. Upgrade when you're ready.
No contracts. Cancel anytime.
Free
Try ARAD with zero commitment.
- 5 analyses per month
- Full single-asset analysis
- Complete methodology transparency
- 5-year data lookback
Pro
Unlimited analysis, ranking, and backtesting.
- Unlimited analyses
- Rank all 610+ assets at once
- Portfolio backtesting (3 strategies)
- Full 40+ year history
- CSV export
- Priority support
14-day money-back guarantee
Premium
Build on ARAD with API access and custom parameters.
- Everything in Pro
- REST API access (5 keys)
- Custom parameters
- Advanced risk metrics
- Priority support
14-day money-back guarantee
Not ready to commit? Get the signals first.
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Questions? We've got answers.
Everything you need to know about ARAD and how it works.
A drawdown measures how far a price has fallen from its highest point. If a stock reached $100 and is now at $85, it’s in a −15% drawdown. Every asset goes through drawdowns — ARAD analyzes what typically happens at each level based on decades of real market data.
No. ARAD shows you what happened historically when an asset was at the same drawdown level. For example: “The last 47 times SPY dropped 12–15% from its peak, it returned +8.7% over the next 90 days, with a 76% win rate.” That’s a historical pattern, not a guarantee. Every number comes with a prediction error so you can judge how reliable it is.
Stock screeners filter assets by metrics like P/E ratio or market cap. Technical analysis looks for chart patterns like head-and-shoulders. ARAD does neither. It takes the entire drawdown history, segments it into equal levels, and computes what happened after each one. It’s a statistical approach — every signal has a sample size, a win rate, and a measured error.
ARAD tracks 610+ assets across 7 categories: US Stocks (152), ETFs (99), Mexican BMV (199), Crypto (50), Commodities (20), Forex (20), and CS2 Cases (42). Prices update daily via Yahoo Finance and Steam Market.
Yes. A 76% win rate means 24% of similar historical episodes ended with a loss. ARAD shows you the full picture — expected return, win rate, AND the maximum loss observed in each drawdown level. It’s a decision-support tool, not financial advice. Always combine it with your own research and risk tolerance.
Prediction error is the average difference between what ARAD estimated and what actually happened, across all historical episodes. If the expected return is +8% with a 5% error, actual outcomes historically ranged mostly between +3% and +13%. Lower error means a more reliable signal.
Yes. ARAD uses Supabase (PostgreSQL) with enterprise-grade security and Row Level Security. Passwords are hashed, payment processing goes through Stripe (we never see your card number), and API keys for Premium users are SHA-256 encrypted before storage.
ARAD shows you the win rate at your asset’s current drawdown level. A win rate above 65% with a prediction error under 8% is a statistically favorable zone. But ARAD never tells you to buy — it shows you the odds so you can decide with confidence.
Yes. ARAD is a decision-support tool, not a brokerage. Use it alongside any broker — run your analysis on ARAD, check the signal, then execute your trade wherever you normally invest. Pro users can export CSV data for their own spreadsheets and models.
The REST API returns JSON with current drawdown, median forward return, win rate, prediction error, segment data, and historical price paths. Premium users get 5 API keys with standard rate limits. Full endpoint documentation is available after signup.
Still have questions? Reach out to our team
Don't take our word for it.
Hear from investors who use ARAD to make data-driven decisions.
I used to freeze every time the market dipped. Now I just check ARAD — if the win rate is above 70% at this drawdown level, I buy with confidence. It’s changed how I invest.
Sarah M.
Retail Investor · Pro subscriber
The ranking feature alone is worth the subscription. I can scan all 610+ assets in seconds and find the ones with the strongest statistical setup. It’s like having a quant desk on my laptop.
David K.
Active Trader · Pro subscriber
As a quantitative analyst, I was skeptical. But the methodology is transparent, the prediction errors are honestly reported, and the API gives me exactly what I need to integrate signals into my workflow.
Priya R.
Quant Analyst · Premium subscriber
The next drop is coming. Will you be ready?
Markets have always dropped, and they have always recovered — but only some investors bought at the right time. Start free. No credit card. Just data.